Gillingham: England have so much to prove

RUGBY'S Six Nations kicks off this weekend with the mouth-watering centenary clash between England and Wales at Twickenham.

It is a contest unlikely to determine the destiny of the championship, yet will be a classic encounter, as the teams form one of the game's greatest rivalries.

The championship itself is of significant import; the last in the northern hemisphere before virtually every other Test match over the next 18 months starts to be spun by coaches as part of the build-up to the 2011 World Cup.

Don't kid yourself, though, because the Six Nations – despite its history – remains a second tier event in global terms.

There is no South Africa, New Zealand, Australia or Argentina.

So who will run out winners and be able to justly label themselves the world's fourth-best rugby team?

It's easy to split the six nations into three pairs. Scotland and Italy will, again, fight it out for the wooden spoon, though I have no doubt it will be Nick Mallett's Azzuri who again finish bottom.

Both countries play three of their five matches away from home and, though the crucial clash between the two is in Rome, I suspect the lift from the Scots' new coaching team, headed by Andy Robinson, will see them safe.

Third and fourth places will be fought out by England and Wales, making this weekend's opener crucial.

Martin Johnson is under immense pressure after the misery of the Autumn internationals, while Wales too under-performed.

I give third place to Wales, since they play three times at the Millennium stadium and could well win all of them.

Scotland and Italy should be put away with reasonable comfort, while France are always vulnerable away from home. Defeat for England this weekend would be catastrophic.

Their only other home fixture is against my tournament favourites, Ireland, and if Johnson's team find themselves showing the same paucity of ideas that blighted them in November, it could be a painful February and March.

I fancy the Irish to run out champions despite their clash with France in Paris. I'm not as convinced as some about France's collective might, which has been reflected individually by the qualification of four of their clubs to the last eight of the Heineken Cup.

France coach Marc Lievremont has key figures missing. Maxime Mermoz, the best centre in the northern hemisphere, is unavailable for the tournament due to injury; as is Fabien Barcella, who on the admittedly slim evidence of a couple of Tests in November, is arguably the world's most outstanding loose-head prop.

France are fragile at fly-half, have their first-choice scrum-half (Julien Dupuy) suspended for the rest of the season and, if Lievremont picks his best nine (Morgan Parra) and 10 (Francois Trinh-Duc), he would lack a place-kicker of Test class.

At this level, that is suicidal.

So, I'll stick my neck out – it's going to be done the hard way, with wins at Twickenham and the Stade de France, but it will be another Grand Slam for Ireland.