Forest are moving through the gears

WHILE their season hardly got off to the perfect start at home, Nottingham Forest are now swiftly moving through the gears.

Beginning with back-to-back defeats at the City Ground seems a long, long time ago now that the season is more than a third of the way through.

And while Billy Davies will continue to play down any chance of promotion, the fact is Forest are still very much in the play-off hunt following Saturday's 1-1 draw with Bristol City.

With the chance to strengthen further in January transfer window, the supporters are confident of this being a season where they can push for a top-six spot.

Davies knows under his leadership it can be achieved.

And if they are to still be in with a chance as the season enters its final furlong in April, their City Ground form will dictate whether they make it or not this time round.

So far, their away form has been tremendous, as they remain the only unbeaten team in the top four leagues on their travels.

But while they are performing heroics on the road, it is paramount they build up a solid home record, if they want to be in the shake-up when the season comes to an end.

And, while conceding a last-minute goal cost them a fourth consecutive home win on Saturday, they have now taken ten points from a possible 12 in their last four games on home soil.

History tells you a good home record puts you in the frame for promotion.

During Forest's final two seasons in League One, it was their home form that provided the basis for a promotion push.

First, it led them to fourth place and eventually a play-off defeat to Yeovil. And, in the second full season under Colin Calderwood, it saw them claim runners-up spot and win automatic promotion.

In 2006/07, the Reds finished third overall in the home league table, amassing 47 points from 14 wins and five draws with just four defeats, scoring 37 goals along the way.

The season after, it was the same points tally, the same goals scored – but from 13 wins and eight draws, with just two defeats.

On that occasion, away form backed it up as they sneaked promotion on the last day.

But on both occasions, they averaged 2.04 points per home match.

That is in stark contrast to their return to the Championship when they could only conjure up 31 points at an average of 1.34 per match at the City Ground.

Eight wins, seven draws and eight defeats saw them 20th overall in the home form table and in the end, they managed to get to safety under the stewardship of Billy Davies.

What was interesting was both Birmingham and Burnley averaged 2.04 points per game at home in the same season. The Blues finished second and went up automatically, while Burnley were fifth and won promotion through the play-offs.

At present, the Reds boast remarkable away form, way above average and are the only side unbeaten on the road with two wins and six draws.

But it is clear from past trends – and those of their own as they tried to get out of the third tier for three seasons – home form is key.

Forest are in touch of the play-off places, two points off the play-off places. They have made a bright start to the season and are getting even better.

Davies has played down chances, saying next season should be their time.

But if the Reds want to remain in the shake-up, on the heels of the chasing pack, what happens at the City Ground will be the foundation for success.

As much as they would love it to, the away run will not last forever. So at home, if they can hold their own, they will be in with a shout of a top-six place come the end of the campaign.

Some will point to three defeats already. But, at the same time, three of those came out of the first four matches with losses to West Brom, Watford and Blackpool.

As we have heard before, the two 1-0 defeats were harsh as Forest dominated but could not score. Only Watford, when the Reds were poor, did they deserve to come away with nothing.

Since then, they beat Scunthorpe, Newcastle and Barnsley without conceding to take their record to four wins and three defeats without a stalemate before the visit of Bristol City.

The fact is, they cannot afford to lose too many more games. But, because of the lack of draws, they are still averaging 1.62 points per game and sit 11th overall in the home form table.

Performances suggest they can nail their home form and with it, eventually Davies will have to admit they are a real bet for a play-off place.