Davies determined history will not repeat itself

IT is a lesson Darren Ferguson has learned the hard way, with the price of failure being his job at Peterborough United.

But he is not the first. Nor will be the last.

Billy Davies has been through it at Derby County and, in the near future, the likes of Birmingham's Alex McLeish and Mick McCarthy at Wolves may start to become nervous that they could soon fall victim themselves.

They have all discovered that there is a very big difference between being good enough to win promotion – and strong enough to survive at the next level.

It is, in fact, a vast chasm.

Over the summer, reports suggest Ferguson was offered the chance to invest in more experienced players to bolster his squad.

But he chose to keep faith in the men who had guided Posh to consecutive promotions.

In Davies' case, it was not something he was too naive to appreciate, as he hounded the Derby board to spend big in the summer, after steering them into the top flight via the play-offs in 2006/07.

But it was still he who paid the price, when their subsequent struggle for survival appeared doomed to failure.

Only those Forest fans who have been hidden under a rock for the past few months will fail to be aware of Davies' opinion on such matters.

His insistence that the club is not yet equipped to challenge among the Premiership elite has been voiced repeatedly and without an iota of doubt.

But, when it comes to the very different question of whether Forest are good enough to challenge for promotion, Davies' blunt sense of reality does begin to waver. If only a little.

Forest, he admits, are developing into a good side.

But one of the best in the Championship?

Davies is not ready to admit that – at least not yet.

"There is a difference between being good enough to win promotion and being good enough to succeed when you get there, I will give you that," he said.

"When you look at things, there is a calmness, a level of experience and a cleverness about Newcastle. They have an arrogance with the way they go about things.

"We have not got that at the moment, we still have naivety and inexperience.

"Our squad is still not big enough and we do not have that calmness.

"For me, when it comes to Newcastle, Middlesbrough and teams like that, we are still an awful long way away from these people.

"Even Sheffield United, goodness knows what size of squad they have, goodness knows what they have spent.

"They have 15 players out at the minute and they can still put a good team out.

"We are missing two or three players at the minute, as well as the long-term injuries in Julian Bennett and James Perch, and we are down to a 17-man squad.

"In that group of 17, we have players who are still learning their trade.

"The squad is still lacking the calmness, the craft, the astuteness and the experience to go and cope in certain places at certain times.

"What worries me is that we are thin on the ground. This club cannot afford to play without the likes of Dexter Blackstock, who was flying, Nathan Tyson, who was playing very well and Robert Earnshaw, who will bring you goals left, right and centre."

There are, of course other clubs with far worse injury problems than Forest.

But Davies feels that only emphasises his point when it comes to his current squad's ability to sustain a season-long challenge for promotion.

"I won't change my mind on that, because I look at Newcastle United, Sheffield United and Derby County – they have 15 or 16 players missing and are still fielding a strong side," he said.

"We are not in that position.

"They can still field 18 players on a match day.

"If we pick up another two or three, we could end up with a 14-man squad.

"It is the key players who are missing that concern me.

"If we get one or two more injuries, it can have a negative affect.

"All we need is for Paul McKenna, Lee Camp, David McGoldrick or Dele Adebola to pick up an injury – then you are missing crucial players.

"Hopefully, we can stay injury-free. Hopefully, we can get the four or five currently-injured boys back very quickly.

"In the meantime, I will sit down and look at things between now and the January window and hopefully we can land some very good signings."

Meanwhile, Davies does at least concede that the Championship is a division in which many teams could flourish this season.

A quick glance at the League table shows that even 12th placed Watford are only three points behind third-placed Cardiff and, in theory, therefore still very much involved in the promotion race.

"The Championship has been the same over the last few years. It is not a weak division, that is for sure," said Davies.

"What we have seen more recently is that there are a number of big clubs throwing big money at trying to get to the Premiership.

"Look at the squad sizes – look at the Sheffield United v Newcastle game recently.

"The squad sizes were massive, they have spent large amounts of money and had plenty of players missing – but were still able to name a strong team.

"Similar can be said about teams like Cardiff.

"Everyone is spending money to chase success. The competition is very fierce at this moment in time.

"We have been together for two minutes. It was a massive achievement to avoid relegation, then we brought in a lot of players in the summer time and we have had a little time to work with them.

"But we have had to face clubs who have enjoyed stability over a number of years and who have thrown big money at assembling big squads.

"That is why we are delighted now – but there is still work ahead."

When it comes to such opinions, Davies has reached the stage where he feels the need to apologise for repeating himself.

But that, perhaps, is only because he does not want to see history repeat itself for him if, by some chance, he does manage to guide Forest into the promised land.