Paul Taylor: This time, change has been a good thing for Nottingham Forest
THIS season, 31 managers have lost their jobs in the top four divisions of English football.
That equates to almost a third of all clubs making a change.
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Nottingham Forest
Although, if you include Steve Cotterill, Nottingham Forest have been responsible for three of those on their own.
But each and every situation will have had one thing in common.
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The big decision, when it came, will have been based on one simple belief – that a new man could do a better job.
A recent study demonstrated that, over a period of 13 games, clubs that had changed managers were, on average, actually a point worse off than those who chose to stick, rather than twist.
A change of manager does not always equate to a change in fortunes.
At Forest, this is probably something that, with the benefit of hindsight, even Fawaz Al Hasawi himself would admit to.
The decision to axe Sean O'Driscoll and replace him with Alex McLeish certainly didn't have the desired outcome.
McLeish, as his television appearance over the weekend proved, is a decent, driven character. But he and Forest were simply never a good fit.
The Scotsman admitted as much himself, amid an honest assessment of his 40-day tenure.
But, while Al Hasawi's decision making may have been questionable over the Christmas period, the club's Kuwaiti chairman and owner has certainly made amends subsequently.
The return of Billy Davies can hardly be chalked up to new manager syndrome, because he is not a new manager – he is an entirely familiar face.
He was also one of few appointments Forest could have made that would have appeased large sections of the fan base.
But the number of people who approve of the move must be swelling by the minute.
Because, in the case of Davies, it is impossible to argue that his appointment has had anything other than the desired effect.
It has totally galvanised the club.
A season that had looked to have unraveled amid a tide of hasty decision making, could yet see Forest sweep into the play-offs on a tidal wave of good form.
We know who has inspired that, but how has he done it?
How has Davies transformed a team that, as he often points out, had won only three of their previous 14 games prior to his appointment, into one that is now closing in on a club record number of consecutive wins?
An interview with Henri Lansbury, immediately after Forest had won at promotion rivals Hull on Saturday, told a significant story.
Almost regardless of the question; whether he was asked about their promotion chances, the manner of their victory or the goals scored from the Forest midfield recently, the midfielder's responses centred around two things.
And they were the spirit engrained in the squad and the hard work they put in on the training ground.
Lansbury's stock answer revolved around Forest doing things as a team; the sense of unity within the ranks and the determination they have to succeed.
These are qualities, you could argue, that should be engineered by any manager who is truly earning his wage.
But what Davies has inspired is something beyond that.
There are no factions in the squad; no one player who feels like he does not have a part to play.
And that is Davies' greatest talent – promoting this 'them-against-us' mentality.
Almost all non-playing or coaching staff have been moved away from the club's training ground.
A siege mentality has been created within the walls of the Nigel Doughty Academy.
It extends almost to the point where anyone outside of the dressing room or the manager and coaches offices; anyone outside of the inner sanctum, is viewed as the enemy – or, at the very least, a distraction from their common goal.
That has only enhanced the sense of togetherness; the desire to do things for the team.
Davies has also perpetrated the belief that hard work will be rewarded. If you do well on a Saturday afternoon, you will keep the shirt.
That pledge has been borne out by Davies' team selections.
In seven matches, Davies has used only 14 players in his starting line-ups.
And the changes he has made have largely been inspired either by injury or suspension.
O'Driscoll was a man with good ideas; an intelligent, likable character with a long-term plan – which he was not given the chance to implement.
But he was also not without fault. One of which was that he spent too much time worrying about the opposition, changing his own team to counter the strengths of the team they were facing.
The prime example of this was when Forest attempted to field a three-man central defence to counter Hull City when they came to the City Ground.
Forest, in the end, were unlucky to be beaten, 2-1, ultimately by a goal that clearly involved the use of a hand by Paul McShane.
But the performance was hardly one to write home about, amid an insipid encounter that became a dull game of chess.
Davies, in contrast, went to the KC Stadium and unleashed the attacking qualities of his own side, amid a formation, with a midfield diamond, that he has clearly decided best suits their abilities.
It was not quite throwing caution to the wind, but it was not far off, with Davies making three attacking substitutions in an attempt to win the game.
It was a far more absorbing, entertaining encounter, as the two teams exchanged punches in the centre of the ring, rather than dancing around with their guards up, trying to avoid getting hit themselves.
The players Davies brought on – Dexter Blackstock, Billy Sharp and Lewis McGugan this time combined to provide the winning goal, as Forest secured a 2-1 win of their own.
And the players who are left on the bench are also motivated to do well, because they want to earn a place back in the starting line-up.
The three goals in three games scored by McGugan as a substitute are evidence of that.
And six consecutive wins are irrefutable evidence of the impact made by a change of manager.
There is much work to be done before Forest secure a play-off place, never mind allowing themselves to consider making a challenge for automatic promotion.
But, if Davies can continue to inspire the same level of belief in his players, the appointment of Davies could yet prove to be one change that the Al Hasawi's were right to make.
12 Comments
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by redtedng9
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 8:43PM
“JonRed4eva-agree totally with your comments. Many of us knew exactly who the problem was, now he is gone and should never return. Taste it, touch it, the City Ground is now an even better place to be. U Reds !”
by KingBilly
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 5:06PM
“Pfffft!! That sheep boy MI5sterT (PaulDerby in disguise) only comes on to slate Billy whilst defending Mark Arthur. I'm sure he's a relative of Mark Arthur..or, could he actually be..? Surely not!
Anyone read the fantastic article about 'journalists' slating Forest by ForestJosh on WeOnlySingWhenWereWinning wordpress?
http://tinyurl.com/ctlxdj9”
by BrindersGod
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 2:26PM
“'I also hope it prevents fawaz sacking billy when we have a bad run, which is inevitable at some point.'
Here lies the moment of truth for Fawaz. He has played the popularity card by bringing back BD but it would backfire spectacularly should he revert to type when going gets tough.
'As for billy, he has nothing to prove.'
What he has to prove is he can actually take us up and cope with the Premier League. That's quite a lot to prove!
'I truly believe that if we just keep this ship steady now we can be challenging for Europe in a few years. If you've seen the late kick off interviews you'd struggle to disagree.'
if qualifying for Europe was based on charming Natalie Jackson we'd be Champions League winners again. The interviews demonstrate the 'them against us' siege mentality Paul Taylor speaks of but we'd need a lot more than that in the Premier League - remember the worst team in history?”
by JonRed4eva
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 1:59PM
“Thanks for the warning Parvared.
M15 was one of the reasons I stopped posting on here over a year ago. It is good to be back though. Nice to see some of the old crowd on here too.
M15 can drone on about Mark Arthur all he wants. The proof for me is in the results and that nearly everyone believes that promiotion is going to happen. It is no longer 'if' it is now a case of when.”
by Parvared
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 1:34PM
“JonRed4eva:
Expect a posting from Mark Arthur's number one fan, M15 anytime soon! He'll be wanting you to think that Mark Arthur was the saviour of Forest!
He'll also tell you that Billy Davies is wrong for Forest and Fawaz is making the club a laughing stock!”
by Parvared
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 1:33PM
“JonRed4eva:
Expect a posting from Mark Arthur's number one fan, M15 anytime soon! He'll be wanting you to think that Mark Arthur was the saviour of Forest!
He'll also tell you that Billy Davies is wrong for Forest and Fawaz is making the club a laughing stock!”
by Parvared
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 1:30PM
“JohnRed4eva:
Expect to receive a post from Mark Arthurs number one fan, M15 any time soon! He'll want you to believe that Mark Arthur was good for Forest!”
by 11points1win
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 12:03PM
“jonred4eva
Spot On
Great Post”
by JonRed4eva
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 11:30AM
“I appreciate that this is a pro Billy article Paul, but TrentEndRed has a point. I also think that a vital point is missing from all.
SOD was the best choice out of what was available at that time. McLeish was put forward to Fawaz by others in the club with Fawaz having to rely on recommendations from others within the club.
Once Mark Arthur was shown the door (cue much rejoicing) the path for Billy's return was clear.
There is no way would Billy have been allowed back, nor would Billy have wanted to, if Arthur was still at the club.
Think back a couple of years when Boyd was forced onto Billy as a loan just to help calm the outrage of another January with no investment. At the time it was clear that Billy did not want him.
Fast forward to this January.
The 6 months grace that had been allowed to all directors etc had come to an end and many were shown the door. Arthur being one of them. It was also clear that McLeish was not the right fit. Then Boyd failed on an eye test to much outrage from the press and other clubs. McLeish goes which left the way for Billys return.
Now no one will say that mistakes have not been made, and no doubt, more mistakes will be made in the future. But do you really think that the Hasawi family had not seen the drop in performances since Billy had left last time? How can a team be challenging for promotion 2 years running and then be in danger of relegation the same year the best manager we have had for years gets sacked.
Do you need a degree in business studies or any other subject to work that out????
For me the biggest mistake that the Hasawi family made was agreeing to allow Arthur to stay for a whole 6 months, and for listening to him. Heavens above, he proved for the last 10 or so years how good he was at his job.
It is funny that the press are quick to jump on our new owners in the first 6 months of the new regime. Yet the same press allowed the past 12 years of broken promises and lies (Pratley/Whittingham etc.) go without comment.
As with the Cricket Club who went from strength to strength once Arthur had left them, we will do the same.
We have good new owners that are delivering on their promises. I am far more confident that they are "Serious about promotion".”
by JonRed4eva
Tuesday, March 19 2013, 11:29AM
“I appreciate that this is a pro Billy article Paul, but TrentEndRed has a point. I also think that a vital point is missing from all.
SOD was the best choice out of what was available at that time. McLeish was put forward to Fawaz by others in the club with Fawaz having to rely on recommendations from others within the club.
Once Mark Arthur was shown the door (cue much rejoicing) the path for Billy's return was clear.
There is no way would Billy have been allowed back, nor would Billy have wanted to, if Arthur was still at the club.
Think back a couple of years when Boyd was forced onto Billy as a loan just to help calm the outrage of another January with no investment. At the time it was clear that Billy did not want him.
Fast forward to this January.
The 6 months grace that had been allowed to all directors etc had come to an end and many were shown the door. Arthur being one of them. It was also clear that McLeish was not the right fit. Then Boyd failed on an eye test to much outrage from the press and other clubs. McLeish goes which left the way for Billys return.
Now no one will say that mistakes have not been made, and no doubt, more mistakes will be made in the future. But do you really think that the Hasawi family had not seen the drop in performances since Billy had left last time? How can a team be challenging for promotion 2 years running and then be in danger of relegation the same year the best manager we have had for years gets sacked.
Do you need a degree in business studies or any other subject to work that out????
For me the biggest mistake that the Hasawi family made was agreeing to allow Arthur to stay for a whole 6 months, and for listening to him. Heavens above, he proved for the last 10 or so years how good he was at his job.
It is funny that the press are quick to jump on our new owners in the first 6 months of the new regime. Yet the same press allowed the past 12 years of broken promises and lies (Pratley/Whittingham etc.) go without comment.
As with the Cricket Club who went from strength to strength once Arthur had left them, we will do the same.
We have good new owners that are delivering on their promises. I am far more confident that they are "Serious about promotion".”