THERE is no more shrewd, cerebral and honest commentator on rugby than former England fly-half Stuart Barnes.

Which is why I was feeling a little smug on Sunday morning when I read the team he suggested Martin Johnson should have picked for this weekend's Six Nations Grand Slam decider against France in Paris.

Back in January, I foisted on you my England XV in-the-making. To be frank, a few of them were at the time a bit "left-field". Yet nine of my XV are in Barnes's team to take on the French – and they include Northampton's Phil Dowson as blindside flanker and captain.

Unless you're a rugby anorak, Dowson's is a name that is probably new. Even among aficionados in print and over airwaves, he has not been mentioned when speculating about possible replacements for incumbent leader Steve Borthwick.

Yet in this weekend's Sunday Times, hey presto, there it was in black and white – Barnes' man to take charge at the Stade de France on Saturday night is none other than Dowson.

He is not even captain at his club yet his performances week-in, week-out in the Guinness Premiership and Heineken Cup should make him a pick for England's 22 if not necessarily the starting XV. He is fearless, a natural leader and a thinker on the field.

Even so, it should come as no surprise that Johnson deems Dowson to be surplus to requirement in Paris.

The England manager is not for turning.

"We have to be very smart when we make changes because we have to build a team here and give these guys confidence and belief in what they're doing," said Johnson.

"Ultimately that's the difference between teams at this very top level."

As a mantra, that is sound. Managers who back their players are honourable and to be admired. But if the manager has the wrong players then there has to be a time when he faces up to that fact and changes them.

Johnson's belligerence has served him well over the years. On occasions it is an asset yet this time it is in danger of undermining his best judgment.

We are led to believe that come hell, high water or even a run of bad results Johnson has the job until after next year's World Cup in New Zealand.

So why not start the planning now for their opening game against Argentina in Christchurch on September 10, 2011 rather than adopting a game plan and workforce that smacks of short-termism and even a sense of desperation?

The Six Nations is an important tournament but compare its quality to a World Cup or southern hemisphere Tri-Nations and it is "second tier".

As the only nation from the northern hemisphere to have ever won the World Cup – and done so less than seven years ago – we can reasonably judge England by the highest standards. And, frankly, it is inconceivable that Johnson's current crop will go all the way in New Zealand next year, which would likely involve beating at least two of Australia, South Africa and the All Blacks.

Johnson has been in charge for almost two seasons and the trend is one of steady decline. Borthwick is one of the finest line-out forwards in the Guinness Premiership but he is neither an automatic pick for England nor a leader of great distinction.

Ugo Monye is perhaps the fastest thing on a rugby field in Europe. But he has shown himself to be not a natural finisher or reader of the game in the way Chris Ashton is. Ashton is the most prolific try-scorer in English rugby this season and a relatively recent convert from the league code. Yet Johnson appears not to trust him.

The same had been said of Ben Foden, a mercurial talent but with flaws that have, until now, made him too risky a selection for Johnson. Over the past three weeks the Northampton full-back has been given a run off the England bench. This weekend, along with Foden, he gets a starting role.

As for who is the long-term fly-half, it is perhaps the most pressing problem of all. Jonny Wilkinson is unlikely to be at next year's World Cup though the two most obvious replacements, Toby Flood and Shane Geraghty, have yet to seize the opportunity when it has been presented to them.

Perhaps the answer to Johnson's conundrum is at Vicarage Road and not even playing with a 10 on his back. Alex Goode is just 21 and making a name for himself with Saracens at full-back. He is, though, a natural fly-half having reached rugby's top flight via a junior sporting career that took him to a high level at football, athletics and tennis.

Johnson has acknowledged there is an abundance of talent outside his current squad. The problem is that he's apparently reluctant to test it. And until he finally acknowledges that his current squad is on the road to nowhere, then it seems unlikely her ever will.

Johnson added: "From our point of view there is progress, there is improvement. It is not always, probably, obvious to people."

You're right, Johno, it isn't.