A QUICK search on the internet reveals some familiar words; talk of it being too soon for promotion, of a squad not yet prepared for life in the Premiership.

Billy Davies cautiously predicts a season of ups and downs, of significant vagaries in fortune, of highs and lows in the remainder of the Championship season.

Crucially, it is not Nottingham Forest the Scot is discussing however, but Derby County, at a similar stage of the campaign, just a few years ago.

And we all know how that ultimately turned out, with the Rams taking their place in the top flight via the play-offs.

For now, while it is delivered with a knowing smile, the message from Davies remains startlingly similar.

"On April 28 I will admit we are in a promotion race, if we are still in this position," he says.

"No, seriously, I think once you get into mid-Ferbruary and the start of March, that is when it starts to get exciting.

"Then you will see the real signs of who is in the mix.

"At that point injuries have kicked in, suspensions have kicked in and people have done their business in the transfer market.

"Once you get to that stage, then it starts to hot up.

"But right now, I am not ready (to admit Forest are promotion candidates).

"I am telling you, with my experience over a number of years, when I look at the squad of players and the infrastructure at the club, it is too early to be talking about promotion or play-offs.

"We are making progress, but we have an awful lot of work to do."

The sentiments are trademark Davies.

But is this playing down of the situation just a re-run of his tried and tested formula for success in the Championship?

Again there is a smile as he replies.

"The question I would ask you is this, were Derby County ready for the Premier League? No they were not," he said.

"They were two years too early for promotion.

"I was saying that back then, because it was the way I felt. The squad was not ready.

"When you get there so early, a few things must happen.

"That season Derby went up, Spurs spent £45m in the transfer market and that was on top of the Premiership squad they already had.

"If a club like Derby or Forest get promotion too early, you have got to spend £30m to £35m in the first window and £25m in the second window.

"You have to bring yourselves up to the same level as everyone else.

"Derby County were not ready and, in my opinion, Nottingham Forest are not ready, in terms of the infrastructure, squad and the players, we are not ready."

There is a difference though, between being ready for the Premiership and being capable of winning promotion though, isn't there?

"There is a difference between being good enough to win promotion and being good enough to succeed when you get there, I will give you that," he said.

"There is a calmness, a level of experience and a cleverness about Newcastle.

"They have an arrogance with the way they go about things. We have not got that at the moment, we still have naivety and inexperience. Our squad is still not big enough, we do not have that calmness.

"We have to add a number of faces but, even if we do that, this club will not be ready to make that giant step.

"A strong mid-table position is what we should be looking at."

For now, Forest's stock is high following a run of seven games unbeaten that has propelled the club firmly into the promotion reckoning.

But Davies remains braced for a quick change in fortunes.

"You are always two games away from a crisis in football, you are only as good as your last game and the one thing that is guaranteed is that, between now and the end of the season, there will be lots of twists and turns and lots of changes in position in the league," he said.

"You are a tactical nightmare when you lose football matches, but when you win or draw, some people start to understand your theories and why you do things in a certain way.

"I know that every week I have 40,000 football managers out there who all know better than I do.

"That is the great thing about football, you just have to deal with it.

"I will always try to do the right things for the right reasons, sometimes that will please people, other times it will upset them.

"Football is a game of opinion and you never get it right all the time. I make mistakes and will continue to make mistakes in the future.

"But you try to do things sensibly and for the right reasons and, if they work for you, great and if they don't you get on with it."

Standing between Forest and an eighth match unbeaten are Bristol City, a side that has made a steady progression of its own since making the step up from League One.

"Bristol are a very similar side to Cardiff in that they have had stability over a number of years, they have been knocking around at the top end of the table," said Davies.

"But they have had time to work on their team and everything else.

"It is another tough Championship match."

Davies' players will go into the game with great confidence, but the manager's perspective remains clear.

"I never get carried away at this stage in the season, even if I am pleased with our progress," he said.

"November is not a time to get carried away, it is a time to be pleased with progression, but to make sure that complacency does not creep in."

With Davies around to keep feet firmly on the ground, that is almost a certainty.

But, if the current form can be maintained, come March, even he may be forced to change his tune.