I WON'T lie to you. When Forest lost to Derby a few weeks ago, I thought that was it.

I feared a return to League One was the only possible outcome to the season.

I could not see how the club would escape relegation because, as well as being in a poor vein of form, they would also have to cope with the disappointment of a second East Midlands derby defeat in a matter of weeks.

I was bracing myself for disaster; for a return to the third tier of English football.

The squad looked paper thin and, in all honesty, I could not see how Billy Davies was going to inspire a change of fortunes.

Thankfully, he has found a way.

And, in the space of just two matches with Robert Earnshaw finding his shooting boots, the situation already looks very different.

Instead of despair, there is optimism. Fear has been replaced by hope.

By beating Reading and Preston, Forest have proved that they are not only capable of beating the top sides in the Championship, but also of winning their relegation fight.

But – and this is a big but – I would urge them to remember one thing.

And that is that they are not safe yet.

They may have won a few battles, but they have not won the war.

And, with so many teams embroiled in the relegation dogfight, it is actually a bit of a double-edged sword.

Overall, it actually gives Forest a better chance of survival, that so many teams are involved at the wrong end of the table.

But, at the same time, it is also a cause for nervousness, because, with so many teams involved and so many of them finding form at the right time, it remains almost impossible to predict what will happen.

Seriously. Who would have thought that Plymouth would win at Wolverhampton or that Southampton would suddenly go on the kind of run they have?

In the past seven days, virtually every team in the bottom ten has pulled out a surprise result.

Forest, of course, have done better than most, by beating two sides chasing promotion during a campaign when they had managed only one previous win over a team in the top 12.

And it is a big landmark for them to have reached the 40-point mark, as it means the finishing line is in sight.

But, when it comes to the question of what, exactly, it will take to keep Forest up, it really is impossible to say.

Charlton, barring a miracle, are facing a future in League One. They are too far adrift to claw themselves out of trouble now.

And that means Forest, effectively, are fighting to avoid filling one of the two other relegation hotspots.

The traditional target for teams wanting to avoid relegation is 50.

On that logic, it means Forest need to collect three wins and a draw from their remaining ten games, to be sure of safety.

And that doesn't seem too testing, does it?

But things are not that straightforward.

Because, as I said, with so many teams involved and with such fluctuations in everyone's form, picking who will stutter next is impossible.

At the minute, it is Blackpool and Crystal Palace who are sliding down the table following a string of bad results.

While Doncaster, seemingly, are completely out of trouble following a ridiculous run of form.

Norwich do seem to have a big problem and would be my favourites to go down with Charlton as, barring the odd win here and there, they are dropping too many points to make much progress.

But, beyond that, there are literally eight other sides – including Forest – who should still be seriously worried.

A few bad results could see any one of them sucked right back into real danger.

Heck, if Forest hadn't won the last two they would be in a massive pickle themselves.

And that is how quickly things can change.

As things stand, another couple of wins would put Forest in a strong position. But a few defeats would leave them – and me – feeling very nervous again.

I know football is full of cliches and I hate using them.

But this is one occasion when Forest genuinely can only look after themselves and, as the old saying goes, take things one game at a time.

Things are looking up, but this is no time for complacency.